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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1002544)2/27/2017 2:16:00 AM
From: i-node1 Recommendation

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jlallen

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I'm going to make this short.

1. I believe there is probably a minuscule amount of warming. I don't believe it has been established what caused it to my satisfaction although I can appreciate others disagree about this.

2. Unless the pace of warming increases substantially, I'm not sure it can be proved to my satisfaction in my lifetime. I hope Trump will move us toward objectivity in the science but I do not know. Importantly, the process of "adjusting" datasets and having subsequent experimentation rely on those adjustments without confirming the work is not science. It is an outrage that actual scientists would not tolerate. We would rely less on models and more on understanding the nature of climate, and hopefully, this would return us to some kind of objectivity.

Models of climate can not yet reliably forecast changes. Until it is shown that they can, models must be taken with a grain of salt.

Freeman Dysan has pointed out that the data are getting "better" (more reliable) because of better instrumentation. But the models have have not improved materially over the years. I have worked with large econometric models and they basically face similar problems. The data are now pretty good, but the models continue to suck.

So, the answer is, I just don't know. We're going to need a lot of years of additional data and a better understanding of climate so as to make better models.
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