Some current TA observations on INTC:
Stochastic oscillator is not yet overbought. One very positive indicator on the stochastic is that it appears to be breaking out of a downtrend. Except for a peak in November, you can draw a nice downward trendline across the stochastic peaks from late July on, and the lastest move has broken that line.
RSI shows a similar pattern to the stochastic oscillator.
We are approaching the 50ma around 75, the 200ma is a bit over 80. There is pattern resistance around 75 which should become support if INTC goes through it. There is a potential gap area between 75 and 85 - that is INTC could move rapidly through that area. However, there is pattern resistance around 80.
The MACD indicator crossed-over positively around 12/26. MACD positive crossovers have historically been a highly reliable indicator predictor of significant INTC rallies.
This rally shows rising NVI with rising price, generally indicative of "professional accumulation". However, this is not demonstrated over a long period of time at this point. The last time that NVI showed a sustained rise with price was in August, 1996 through February, 1997, as INTC doubled from 40 to 80 (split-adjusted).
Metastock's "Binary Wave" indicator (a "digital" combination of several popular indicators) is reading a perfect 1.0 - that is, all indicators covered by the Binary Wave indicator are indicating "buy".
The Japanese "three-line-break" chart (a favorite of mine) is showing two positive bars, reversing a negative trend. The reversal bar was on 1/2. A previous attempt at reversal occured around 10/28, but lasted for only one bar. Otherwise, the three-line-break downtrend had been intact since Setember. The previous TLB uptrend lasted from early July through mid-August, as INTC moved from 70 to 100.
Given all of this, along with current fundamentals, my "gut feel" is for a minimum move to 85. However, throwing in some (gut feel) statistical probability, 80 would be a prudent exit point for short-term traders who are adverse to risk.
If you are a long-term INTC investor, of course, you don't need all this gobbldy-gook, and can go back to sleep, secure with the knowledge that you probably will not be mowing lawns in your retirement. :) |
