Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Lucretius who wrote (6679)	1/6/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Like it or not, the technicals for our drillers have gone sour in the last two days, especially today with the failed attempt by analysts to orchestrate a bullrun Monday morning. In just two short days, we had gone from testing upper BB resistence to lower BB support. We have a good chance of not holding this support if oil/gas prices continue to slip. The technicals for crude is not only bad but is getting worse. While the earning may be approaching, the bigger driver for trader sentiment will be the crude/gas price. We may get crude stabilizing at 14-16 for the next three months. If this turns out to be true, it will be interesting to see how people react to this once dreaded crude price range and how it can do to future E&P budget. When we had natural gas price drop a year ago, the shallow drillers corrected near 50%. Since we have corrected nearly 50% for the shallow drillers, I don't see another 50% correction (making it -75% from the top). But MDCO can trade to 15-16 in the next 2-3 weeks and CDG can go to 38-40 (drawn from the down trendlines) if crude/gas continue to sink. The ideal scenario that I like to see is we clean house again this time and in two weeks we hit rock bottom just before the earning season come out. With every driller reassuring future earning growth despite the lower crude/gas, we may be set for a rally that time. LT - GHV chart looks like it needs to close above $28 to sustain the current uptrend. Its stochastics indicates dangerously overbought short term. The only scenario you would want to hope for is its riding the upper BB up. The confirmation is a decisive close above $28. The downside for the next week is $23 low. From its name GHV sounds like a hmo play. They may be having a Jan effect right now. Nancy - for better percentage gain short term you may want to consider shorting some other drillers other than FLC. The land drillers would be a better target to short for bigger return since they are more volatile. Dave and GD - I'm no the short traitor. I have not shorted anything yet but is considering it.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next