Canadian Oil & Gas Companies Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Doug who wrote (4399)	1/6/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Read Replies (1) of 24927

Doug / WTI Crude Oil I'm not as optimistic as many analysts. I think we will begin seeing revisions to the general $19.50 1998 average number most of been throwing around. I'm also sure cash flow forecasts will be reduced by companies for they had been using this same dollar amount for 1998. Keep in mind, companies will be conservative with their WTI estimates for they don't want to be caught in disappointing news regarding their forecasts. Where is the price going to bottom out. My "guess" is that we have another 5% loss potential before we begin to see a firming of the price and gradual increasing. It's a matter of perception versus fundamentals. Right now, perception is in the form of fear which the market is reacting too. The fear being that Iraq flow of oil and increased OPEC production will establish a glut in supply. Throw in slowing ecomomies of developing nations, especially in the Far East, and there is a vision of less demand. It will take time to sort out the true effect of these perceptions. My guess, around the 3rd quarter. This will be when the fundamentals overpower the trend of perception. My specific reasoning, average price for WTI Crude will approximate $18.00/bbl. Quarter to Quarter estimates beginning 1998, $17.00, $17.50, $18.25 and $19.50. Price should continue upward in 1999. It will be interesting to see how these numbers line up with future analyst and company estimates. Let there be no doubt about it. Buying shares in oil and gas producers when price of crude is at $17.00 or below, will turn out to be great move in the longer term. People should be buyers, rather than sellers. People with a cash position to take advantage of this buying opportunity stand to really benefit. Would I be buying now. No. I think the ideal period of time to be buying is around the first of April. That's when (selective) favorable financial and operating reports will be coupled with firming oil prices. And, let's not forget natural gas producers and the favorable outlook for the Canadian operators as we enter the next century.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next