White Shoes, I am kinda surprise that my pick YURI did not make the cut at all. I thought it would be #1. Is it due to so called PE valuations(it is 99)? If you were a CANSLIM fan (who disregard PE), YURI fit C A N S L easily. I dont think YURI has institutions sponsorship (I), and market direction (M) is vague right now.
Let me restate some statistics: (for details, look at #23)
Growth since the beginning, from 1993 to 1996
Revenue grow at 900% in 1993-94, 500% 1994-95, and 350% 1995-96
Earnings grow at 600% in 1994-95 and 350% 1995-1996. 1993 was a negative year so I cannot give you a rate.
Since the annual report of 1997 is not out yet, I dont know the total revenue of 97. Despite its Datalabs acquisition one-time charge, the IR told analysts that they are still "comfortable" with the earnings this year. They blew estimates THREE TIMES in the last THREE QUARTERS, not to mention that the IPO was THREE QUARTERS ago. A realistic forecast of 1997 and 1998 should be 100% increase in revenue, and slightly higher for the earnings (due to economy of scale). They use Sanmina (ticker: SMN) to outsource the production therefore they have a high profit margin (13%) and shouldnt have inventory problems.
YURI owns 30% of ATM access(Asychronous Transfer Mode, NOT Automated
Teller Machines) market. ASND's subsidiary is only beginning to develop ATM products. Only a few players in this niche. The big boys such as CSCO only produce switches. The ATM industry will grow from its infant stage in 1996 of 122 M a year to 1.2 B a year in 2001 (from DataQuest market research), which is a 60%+ compounded rate. If YURI continue to sustain its market share, it will make a bundle.
Not to mention that ATM will DOMINATE (Yes, DOMINATE) WAN in a few years due to its high speed, its standardized, it has videa/data/voice transfer in one product, and able to transfer highest speed possible in low speed carrying medium (such as copper).
Gigabyte Ethernet will compete with ATM in the LAN market due to its lower cost. But Gigabyte Ethernet has the handicap of traffic congestion (frame relay VS cells in ATM), non-standardized, not efficient for voice and video. IMHO, GE is basically an improvement on an outdated product. Correct me if I am wrong.
The government noticed the advantages of ATM already and deployed it in several branches, particularly the Department of Defense. They already used the product to transfer video and sound in a battlefield situation from a moving tank.
YURI has the leading ATM technologies, with several important patents (The products were awarded by at least three hightech magazines). They only concentrate on ATM products, unlike other companies who have other businesses in networking. (People once told me about the company that they invested in also does ATM, but I looked up the 10K annual report of that company and almost found no word of ATM)
A contact of mine in the high tech industry also reconfirm that ATM is getting bigger. He is going to find out more from people in his company's networking department.
If these are not growth factors, I dont know what is. My belief is that YURI will not only be the Growth Stock in 1998, but well into the next millennium. I also believe, backup by the info and data, YURI will take a chunk of the networking market from CSCO, 3COM, ASND...by taking away the WAN shares.
LU, T, and BAY all have strategic alliance with YURI, I guess they see something in this little company, right?
I certainly have done my homework this time. So please reevaluate without using the stock price.
I still have no stake in this stock, but I ll by the end of this month. And I am biting on my tongue because I missed the 12% jump today (No cash available syndrome).
By the way, my list of 151-200 will be due within the next three days. I have found some good stocks from the pool, while some isnt really a growth story.
Ben Yeung |
