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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4319)1/6/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Jay,

Most of the reason for my lowball estimate stems from the fact that the sub $1000 PC (today) is barely functional. Without cache, video memory or a video accelerator card, a sound card, etc, the current device is likely to be a pale imitation of the real thing for most applications.

This is not the same situation as with other consumer electronics. A cheap VCR can still be used to record stuff or play prerecorded stuff. Missing bells and whistles may not even be noticed by most consumers. Same with videocameras, stereos, etc.

With PCs, most people will have had personal experience with a reasonably robust configuration at school, office or some other location. While they may buy a cheap machine, I don't expect a large percentage to be happy.

They can either run applications that are more than 2 years old or upgrade if they wish to take advantage of the same things everyone else is. Some people won't be interested in upgrading even if they can easily afford it. (I have friends in this situation who just don't feel the need to be "connected" for example; others who're waiting for next year's model; ...)

Regardless, wheether it's 10% or 40% or somewhere in between, I believe we agree that it will stimulate sales.

Ian.
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