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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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James Seagrove
To: James Seagrove who wrote (1005516)3/11/2017 3:03:12 PM
From: i-node1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 1575426
 
The modeling approach to studying climate change is bogus. In grad school at one time my job was modeling econometric systems, the technical part of which is not that different. But there is a nuance to the process that is not being respected in climate change modeling: they are, quite literally, "fishing" for data that gives the desired result. Rather than modeling the data to see what result you get. And if they don't get the desired result they "fix" the data. It is sick, really.

It is one thing to run a regression and to look for strong predictors. It is quite another to look at the correlations and go, "This sucks. The data must be wrong! Let's fix it."

No confidence at all in what these people are doing.

I think it is time the funding move to real science with limited use of simulations. Where you conduct experiments to determine what a 1°C change in temperature actually does. Where you determine if, in fact, the relationship between CO2 and temperature is logarithmic in practice, rather than linear, and whether it is a true asymptote or not. But that's not where the fame and fortune are found in climate science.

If someone proves that 1000ppm is harmless, they're not going to be a hero of the climate science cohort.
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