| | | I'm with Elon Musk on hydrogen for cars whether via fuel cells or as fuel for internal combustion. He succinctly explained why it's no good.
My boss in BP Oil International way back in 1986 had worked for Shell in the early 1970s. He was a hydrogen enthusiast. It was no good 45 years ago and it wasn't in 1986 when we were looking for anything at all to replace crude oil as an energy source and it hasn't got any better since then.
Meanwhile, photovoltaics have become so cheap that they are starting to look competitive for supplying swappable batteries. Elon isn't pursuing swappable batteries though he did demonstrate a 90 second swap a few years ago. I stand by 7SSS batteries [7 second swap stop] as the way to go - 7 second pit stop style swaps of little batteries with low range. 90 seconds to swap a battery is far too long. Batteries should be released, pulled out, with another shoved in. Robots could do that job in 7 seconds, like a Formula 1 pit stop.
Then off peak electricity supplies could be used to recharge huge battery stacks, so that when peak time comes for cars to pull in by the thousand, they'd be ready to go. At night, spare cheap nuclear power, or other base-load sources could also be used.
Such little batteries would dramatically reduce capital cost of the car tootling around town, reduce the load being carried dramatically, which would mean the car could be built much lighter as the suspension, wheels, and body could be lighter and electric motors wouldn't have to have so much power to accelerate a ton of battery.
As well, carting a spare ton of battery around is a waste of energy. The reason they make the Tesla so light is to reduce the total weight being lugged around. It's a LOT easier to cut the battery size by 80% which would mean more car components could be included instead, such as better crash resistance, air conditioning, cabin space, or whatever.
The current plan of stopping after 300 km or 400 km for half an hour to get a part charge is hopeless. Taxi operators [and most other people] don't want to spend half an hour filling in time, perhaps just when they don't want to do so. And that half hour assumes nobody is in the queue in front. If there's a bit of a rush, then queues would be for 2 hours to get a part charge. Hopeless.
With total time of 10 seconds stopped in the 7SSS lane, 6 cars a minute or 360 an hour could get FULL charges while in the slow lane for a 'supercharger' drivers would cool their heels for an hour to get a part charge, while 300 cars go past them in the 7SSS lane. That would NOT be fun for them. And supercharger electricity would be more expensive too because the car has to pay for the cost of the land taken up while the car is stopped for half an hour, or an hour, or two hours, waiting to get their part charge. The 7SSS stations would not have the land requirement. A single lane and stopping spot could handle thousands of cars a day. Stacks of batteries being recharged doesn't take much space.
At present, the cost of the Tesla superchargers and land is hidden in the price of the car so a supercharger is "free". In the long run, competition will force the price be paid to cover the location and cost of electricity. There's no free lunch.
If stopped at home, people could use their own photovoltaics or other energy source to recharge their car for no charge, thereby avoiding taxes which recharge stations would have to charge. It would be hard for governments to tax home photovoltaics.
If somebody has a surplus of electricity at home, they could fill their battery, and swap it for a 10% full one at the 7SSS station which would be enough to take them on their errands and go home again, to fill that one up free at their personal photovoltaic supply. Selling electricity to the 7SSS station would be useful money. The 7SSS would be happy to get cheap electricity without over-loading their transmission lines or paying peak power prices.
When Uberized autopilot electric cars replace the current industrial revolution car fleet, the pressure to provide better, faster, cheaper, electricity supplies will increase, putting inefficient fleets out of business.
The total number of cars will reduce by about 90%. Roads will be emptied. Parking available everywhere, lanes cleared. Door to door pickup and drop-off will be a doddle. Real-time congestion tolls will mean no more traffic jams.
Uberized autopilot cars will find big pressure on prices and efficiency. Stopping for half an hour or an hour or two hours to recharge will be hopeless.
Driving an industrial revolution car will be illegal [as other people won't want some large primate, possibly drunk, sleepy or just incompetent or careless coming the other way at 100 km per hour with only a line of paint on the road to keep them away].
Even before it's illegal to drive a car, people will give up owning their own car as using Uberized autopilot cars will save them on:
Parking fees
Walking from parking to the actual destination, and back again [in the rain]
Car insurance [Uberized autopilot cars will have very cheap insurance as they won't crash or be stolen]
Capital cost of owning a car
Repairs and maintenance [expensive and a big hassle for individuals]
Fuel costs or energy costs [fleets buy cheaper]
New industrial revolution cars being bought now will probably be scrapped before they have reached their normal end of life, something like 20 years in New Zealand. Even in USA and Japan where fleets turn over faster, a car bought now will NOT have much value in ten years.
From an investment point of view, it's time to short car insurance companies, and most of the car companies, because as the car populations shrink and insurance premiums dwindle, few will survive. Car parts companies are done for. Spark plugs will be like carburetors and horse shoes.
Qualcomm's Halo will enable convenient wireless recharging when the car isn't moving, at home, office, supermarket etc where parking spaces are very busy. Plugging in a cable is a hassle and hazard, especially on streets. Simply parking over a Halo recharger costs only about 4% more electricity than by doing it by cable. That would be only about a 20 cent saving which a lot of people wouldn't bother with, especially on a street in the rain and snow, with groceries and shopping in hand and children to get into the car.
Mqurice |
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