am guessing that china need not do very much simply because china cannot do very much,
because apparently usa had wished always to have a go at nk, and ostensibly nk is capable of fending for self. so best to leave the two be.
to believe nk answers to china likely is simply faulty, and if so, any strategy premised on that assumption would probably be commensurately faulty.
am reckoning usa has far less choices vis a vis nk than would be w/r to iraq, iran, libya, ..., but sure, watch & brief to see if trump would to up the wager.
my views on n.korea has not required a change since whenever Message 18769806 , since view tracked true for so long already ...
| To: Hawkmoon who wrote (30344) | 3/28/2003 10:58:59 PM | | From: TobagoJack | Read Replies (1) of 74300 | | | Hello Hawk Ron, <<… China … have to make a decision ... exports to the US … pressuring "Krazy Kim", or risking the loss of US markets for their goods?? Tough decision, but I think they are rational people and understand what's at stake>>
… Precisely, get involved in a possible nuclear war or possibly export less to the US by US, int’l invested and domestic companies in China. I think you know what they would choose.
<<… encouraging a re-militarization of Japan is the trump card that I believe Bejing feels is not worth the cost>>
… I think they believe Japan re-arming is a given and, if so, S.Korea will as well, so therefore this card has no leverage. Further, a re-armed Japan is not the same as a Japan wishing to go to nuclear war, and besides, a re-armed Japan may not have to be at the side of the US on all issues.
<<… S. Korea to develop nuclear weapons to maintain a balance of power and economically they are more able to sustain such an arms race than the North. Thus, N. Korean generals will see their ability to coerce the South diminished substantially, and will likely perceive Kim as taking them down a path they don't want to travel. Setting up the possibility of a coup>>
… I think this is US media claptrap wishful thinking. N.Korea’s leverage over the South is due to N.Korea’s perceived and, I believe, genuine willingness to use WMD. This is what makes N.Koreadangerous, and this is why China wants no part of the situation, and this is Bush’s mistake in poking at a hornets’ nest by aggregating N.Korea in an Axis of Evil construct, which has only caused problems and has not generated any discernable advantages.
<<… the best strategy the US can play is to require any talks to be multi-lateral, negating Kim's desire to create the sense that NK is now some kind of "superpower"..>>
I hope you are proven correct that this is indeed workable, but I fear much stands in the way of multi-lateral solutions in a uni-polar world that you so admire. The UN has been made nearly null and WTO almost void. China is labeled a ‘strategic competitor’. There is a perceived and long list of “enemies of America”, and there is a growing list of less-than-friendlies … shall I continue with India, France, Germany, Russia, Canada, … and maybe eventually Italy, Spain, and second to last, Britain? At this moment, global democracy may be working against uni-polar world construct.
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