John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (18800)	3/13/2017 2:30:14 PM
From: The Ox	3 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar ggersh John Pitera Read Replies (2) of 33421

If we look at WTIC from 2011 through middle of 2014, we saw a "50% trading range" (from lows in the high 70s to highs in the low 110s). Basically, $40 to $60 is where I'd expect the range for oil (in US$) going forward. Now we could easily see the range that I'm expecting become lower (going forward) unless we get the substantial pickup in the global economies that I believe should occur over the next 2 or 3 years (possibly longer). As your post shows, the US is become more profitable at lower prices, which should help with keeping somewhat of a lid on crude. As to US stocks, we've taken enough short term steam out that SPY could easily power higher from here. Objectively, I'd like to see much more of a retrace over the course of the next month or 2 and would "ideally" like to see us retest the 225 to 228 area. Longer term charts are "wanting" a slight reversion to the mean, IMO, which implies a backfill period would be healthier for this bull run. Not sure that's going to happen based on what we've been experiencing lately. (see bottom 2 charts below)

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