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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues

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To: foobert who wrote (840)	1/6/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: David Eddy	Read Replies (1) of 9818

Foobert - largest ever scrapping of obsolete computer systems and applications ever. Sounds good, but my experiences with 'replacing' old systems with new systems tells me otherwise. The problem (advantage?) with software systems is that it's not like an tangible object that wears out. At least with a 30 story skyscraper in Manhattan, we can understand that while it was state-of-the-art in 1920 & it's worthwhile to completely raze it to a hole in the ground & then build a modern building 80 stories high... you can see that the old one is totally clapped out. You really cannot see that with software. Software systems get build piece by piece. The track record of doing big software projects is pretty bad... bigger the project, the greater the chance of being totally cancelled. And another 'little' detail about software systems... at the same time you're demolishing the old skyscraper to build the new one... at least you can move the people out. With software, you'll very likely be asked (told) to have people still living in the old building while the new one is under construction. There are known ways of building & maintaining a viable software architecture, but senior business management has proved extremely reluctant to invest in such efforts since it does require a sustained, long term focus... takes at least 4 years to lay the basic foundations. When the management mantra is 'do it yesterday & we'll throw it out in 3 months' investing wisely in the fundamentals of change (the only constant is change, so plan for it, don't be surprised by it) is very difficult to prove by the financial numbers. Personally, I believe one of the potential benefits emerging from the Y2K rubble will be that we'll somehow learn (be forced to learn?) how to wisely invest in the longterm management of critical infrastructures... Investing by the fianancial numbers forces us to not invest in basic infrastructure elements. Unfortunately, it'll take massive Y2K snafus to show that our fianancial wizadry has left us with rotten foundations. - David

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