| | | Very well stated, so often we see only what we're looking for, but this is exactly the propose of this thread, e.g., to share ideas and perspectives on the same market, it gives us a chance to see the very same thing differently... there's lots of very excellent talent on this thread, no gurus, no geniuses, no fortune tellers, no carnival barkers, just a bunch of guys and gals trying to make a few bucks in these markets...
This reminds me of the jelly bean experiment, a very interesting study...
The jelly bean experiment was done with this guy who had a very big jar filled with jelly beans... he had exactly 3810 jelly beans in that jar... he went to an office building mid day and went around to all the offices asking everyone to guess how many jelly beans there were in that jar... no one guessed correctly, the guesses ranged from 150 to 10,000 beans... the guy asked 180 people to guess, no one guessed correctly and no one even came close...
BUT, the guy simply added up all the 180 guesses and divided by 180 to derive the simple average of all the guesses...
That derived average was 3814 jelly beans, there were 3810 jelly beans in that jar, so the average of all the guesses was only 4 beans off...
It could be concluded that even if each person was wrong, that the overall average was right on target and was nearly perfectly correct...
This is the beauty of varying views on one topic, the average of the sum total may well be exactly correct...
GZ |
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