Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

SPY 670.31

-1.1%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

Recommended by:

GROUND ZERO™

John Pitera

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (90614)	3/15/2017 11:37:12 AM
From: Underexposed	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 218558

I am not a great fan of consulting really old data when looking for current movements but I have a few things to say about the chart below First of all you are using a rather small lookback of 5 months for the Keltner bands... a typical lookback would be 20 time intervals which change the look of the bands considerably as you will see. Having said that though... values that crawl along and above the upper band are bullish... there are those two bars at the end are not so outrageously high. You see much more definitive bars exceeding the lower band (2002, late 2008, mid 2011, 2015) there those spikes may have signaled a reversal of trend.... but the bars you refer to are not nearly as strong. What does strike me looking at this chart are the broader peaks in 2000 and 2008 which of course were major corrections... they were about 8 years apart... it looks to me that there was another peak forming in 2015-16 which is 7.5 years later but that revered itself very fast and started another bull run still in force today. Here is my chart of SPY with keltner bands with a more traditional 20 interval lookback I show you the peaks I was talking about....I don't know if this time interval is significant fundamentally but it is curious to observe. I really don't like Keltner bands... when the price (value) is above the upper band the run is bullish... but there are no "choke points to tip off when a reversal will occur. As long as they are above the middle line things are fine but without warning they reverse....So far things look ok to me but it is difficult to predict using this chart. Here is my preferred chart using Bollinger bands... actually it is my "trigger" chart What is interesting to me is that my normal trigger indications are mushy at best.... this sort of makes sense to me because MACD and BBWidth is calculated from AVERAGES while Stochastics is a closing price calculation. When you pack one month of data into each time interval... averages are mushy. MACD for sure performs much better as the time interval shortens... If were a day trader I would use a 5min MACD WITH the signal line..works very well. But look how well the Slow Sto tips off the beginning of a bear run in the two circles on the left..... NOW look at the circle for current data... do you see the same pattern to the slow Sto??? Nopes... it remains Bullish I don't believe in Overbought/Oversold... the stochastic has been so-called "overbought" for years and everything is bullish SO on this basis I believe the S&P 500 is still in good shape... no indication of a dramatic fall being imminent IMHO. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Disclaimer: I am not a registered broker. I am retired and use Technical Analysis as the main tool in my investment decisions. Accept or reject my comments as you will, but do your own Due Diligence (DD) before making any decisions based on the information I provide. Underexposed

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next