GD, I am doing most of my put mining outside the tech area right now. Actually, even GTW and MU are down a heck of a lot from their highs, so the put program in techs was successful in 1997, though not nearly as successful as in 1996 and and 1995. I just didn't have any ISSIs, Picturetels, APCCs, or Pressteks last year. And, probably more to the point, when I did have some big winners, such as MU, GTW, Western Digaditch, and Oracle, I only had minimal one-third positions. So, even though I haven't calculated the total return of 90/10 in 1997 yet, I know I didn't have the triple digit returns of previous years. I have regressed back to my more normal 10-50 pct. returns in that portfolio (that is including the interest on the 90 part).
Right now, I have been concentrating on the banks, the brokers, the dopers, the insurance cos., hotels, and am casting a hairy eyeball on the delivery cos. How can you raise delivery rates if pricing is indeed tight? I think we will see a rollback in a few months that will clobber the stocks. Names I don't like include the list I gave Chris in a previous note, plus Paine Webber, Marriott Intl., Jefferson Pilot (big tech stock portfolio), and Fed Ex.
I don't know FGII. MB |
