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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends
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To: humble1 who wrote (25688)3/22/2017 12:17:55 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) of 41025
 
Good Morning H1,

Made the long drive from Wisconsin to Houston late last week.

Unpacked two cars and three cats from a long two day drive.

Found my home in Houston in need of much work - the surface of which has been attended to.

I am cautious of the market here fo several reasons:

Four months in a row we have closed up into option expiration.

Clx studies suggest big headwinds starting tomorrow and extending for 9-11 trade days.

Both last month and this month Tom Drakes 2cs have been at very low levels suggesting a top is being put in place 41.80 on2/16 and 43.07 on 3/17.

the 2/16 was the Thursday of Feb expiration and the 3/17 was the Friday of expiration .

For four months people who bought calls bought new stock at high prices(strike plus the call premium - that has to be a form of distribution.

Of course it can go on, but the market makers need to get some discounted inventory - being greedy little devils they are!

I think it is a set for a Trump dump when and if the Obamacare repeal and replace does not get done on tomorrow's first house vote.

I've taken some profits on my short term stocks and have buy to close all sold puts for the months of April and May.

Sitting with some cash and accumulating my dividends in the hope of selling some puts once they swell in premium value.

It has been all but impossible to get good premium on puts for the last 4 months.

I'm holding all long term core positions and have cleared out all short term positions.

I think we need a healthy reset.

Fairly clear 5 wave up and now Macd is rolling over and trending down.

A good reset that takes 2-3 months and Trump gets his repeal and replacement done through our slow and often worthless Congress will set us up for a very nice rally in June or July.

Not that a slower repeal means anything - but it is just one of those excuse Wall Street will use till we all want to puke when we hear it - Much like the Grexit and of Brexit were.

I think we are due and nearing corrective reset.

I could very well be all wet here and it could be I'm getting conservative as I must now do my taxes ERGG.

If the Obamacare does get repealed and replaced on tomorrows House vote - the market will no doubt pop.

If that pop has legs I'm all wet - if it gets sold we're in the start of a reset.

That's my thinking now.

Bob
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