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Technology Stocks : Sequent
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To: Rick Smith who wrote (724)1/6/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: van wang  Read Replies (2) of 1229
 
thx to all...i actually think SQNT might miss their target this quarter...overall, i like 1998 to be SQNT's year...I had buy in at $18...even if SQNT misses their number by 4-5 cents...you still have to imply a 20 PE provided top line growth is strong...so $18 gives pretty good risk reward trade since industry PE is 23-25 and this is biased to be low because almost everyone is extremely large

but there are major ifs:

everyone is talking up SUNW...they claim to be able to scale their Ultra up to 128 processors (from 64)...people said SMP servers can't scale up beyond 32 processors...but SUNW has an unique bus that lets them do that...SUNW also claims to have seen strong demand for their high end servers...the industry growth for enterprise servers is 28%...so that is why some debated whether SQNT is growing very fast (and having alot of success)..when you strip out Boeing then SQNT was only growing at 20%

SQNT's benchmarks are competitive but not the best...the key is scalability as a product advantage...still debatable about this as a relevant advantage if SUNW can scale to 128 processors...also DGN came out with great price performance record but lacks some of the key features that NUMA-Q has...lets see if SQNT's record in the data center help them displace other competitors...new wins will be important this Q...my bet is scalability counts because no one wants to spend on hardware when scalability is capped as we moved towards information intensive age...AND that SQNT's implementation experience is relevant and differentiable

I also believe that sometimes this year SQNT will be mentioned quite abit as a serious takeover candidate...and maybe taken over anyway...NUMA-Q must make its mark on the IT community

BTW, I believe that NUMA-Q with its full list of rich features (including fibre and clustering) was available only in December...hence, my belief that 4Q will not be as hot as people think

Windows NT server will be too early to market...the mix environment is nice but I think other can match this

I still have not heard from SQNT

cheers

van
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