| | | The United KingdomAs expected, the UK set in motion the Brexit process which is likely to usher in an era of economic and market uncertainty in the years to come.
Source: @WSJ; Read full article
notice the ADX monthly volatility . is exceptionally high.
1. How did we get here?
• Here is the front page of the Daily Mail on January 1st, 1973 when the UK entered the EU.
Source: @boucherhayes
• This chart from the Economist shows the poll numbers and the various events that got us to this point.
Source: @ECONdailycharts, @josephncohen; Read full article
2. What will happen to all the EU citizens currently living in the UK?
Source: @bbgvisualdata; Read full article
It’s worth noting that a meaningful percentage of England’s health workers are from elsewhere in the EU.
Source: @ftdata
3. What about all the Brits living and working in the EU?
Source: @ftdata
4. As discussed previously, UK’s exporters could be forced to pay tariffs in the EU. The chart below only shows some of the UK goods sold in the EU. Service sector export negotiations could get even more tricky.
Source: @bbgvisualdata; Read full article
1. In other economic developments, with the UK’s real wage growth stalling, households are tapping their credit cards.
Source: @ReutersJamie, @BenChu_
Source: @ReutersJamie, @BenChu_
2. At the same time, business investment has stagnated in response to the Brexit uncertainty. As a result, the nation’s economic growth is becoming dependent on the consumer (with debt levels rising).
Source: @ReutersJamie, @BenChu_
3. In other developments, the UK stock market seems to have decoupled from the exchange rate.
Source: @jsblokland
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The Eurozone1. With all the focus on Brexit, markets are ignoring the situation with Greece. It looks like it’s going to be down to the wire once again. Here are some possible scenarios:
Source: @NickMalkoutzis, @YiannisMouzakis; Read full article
2. Italy’s manufacturing sector confidence is at the best level in nearly a decade.
3. German import price index rose more than expected.
However, German market-based inflation expectations have been declining. Economists see inflation moderating over the long-run as oil price appreciation stalls.
Source: Bloomberg
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EuropeSweden’s economic sentiment data suggests a pickup in GDP growth. Riksbank needs to start withdrawing some of its unprecedented monetary accommodation.
Source: @anwallstrom
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