IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: I. Luttichuys who wrote (51)	9/27/1996 11:38:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 1762

Hi Bennett, Eric Hecht currently has a 12-18 month target of $40/sh. Approx. 6 months ago his target was 32 but at the same time in one of his reports he stated that by year end Idec's stock could double or even triple and at that time the stock was $19/sh. Shekhar Basu [Punk Ziegle analyst] has a current target of $44/sh based on a P/E multiple of 40 times his year 2000 EPS estimate and discounted at 40% for four years. Both analyst have used very conservative figures in all estimates and rightfully so. My personal analysis is somewhat mixed with Idec's price being vulnerable to general market and biotech industry conditions. I personally believe that being first to market with a biological product totally removed from traditional chemo and radiation is going to be a blockbuster product. I can assure you that the patients on the lymphoma forums are desparately waiting for such therapy. The margins are large being that your cost of goods sold should be approx.$500-$950. Eric Hecht 's model uses a selling price of $5000/treatment and Shekhar uses $6000. In a Forbes article back in Nov.1995 Idec stated that their intent was to sell just under $10000/treatment. Idec has not confirmed either of the figures. My thoughts are $6000-8000/treatment. I also feel that eventually the oncologists could cross prescribe for chronic lymphocytic leukemia once they grow comfortable with the drug due to the strong similarities between low grade NHL and CLL. Without getting too involved with numbers I feel there are two variables that are somewhat unknown that will effect Idec's stock in the near term. The first being the rheumatoid arthritis results which both analyst's really don't have a handle on and the second is Coulter pharmaceuticals. I have reviewed the clinical abstract on CE9.1 and the efficacy is very strong and this is a huge positive for the stock. However, there are many unanswered questions, mainly duration of response. I'm speculating that this will show 3-4 months or greater which would be tremendous. Eric Hecht using very conservative figures stated that every 1% penetration of the US Rheumatoid arthritis market by SmithKline would bring 35 cents to Idec's bottom line. This is a huge market and when all questions are answered Eric could be either way too high or possibly hasn't scratched the surface. The reason for mentioning Coulter is that their plans are to go public very soon. Coulter's results are more efficacious than Idec's but as mentioned before more toxic due to the radiation and HAMA responce. Mr. Basu estimated that due to isolation requirements this will add $6000-$8000 in addional costs. It is possible that the market might penalize Idec's stock on the belief that Coulter's product is superior. I beleive that individuals suffering from low grade NHL will demand Idec-C2B8 first[use the least toxic but effective drug first and when that fails then move up to the more toxic drugs]. This is the mind set of many oncologists today when they recommend Chlorumbucil first then fludarabine then CHOP[Excuse my spelling]. I might add that being a Coulter shareholder would be potentially risky. Realizing that all biotech shareholders are at risk,Coulter shareholders risk their part of the market eventually going completely to Idec with Idec-YB28 when it comes to market down the road. Beleive it or not the real future with Idec is in their primatized antibodies such as CE9.1 and the many autoimmune dissorders that their future products address. Also SmithKline is in a Phase II with CE9.1 for severe asthma that we all have forgotten about. I should add that this does address a small market and that is why it is not frequently mentioned. Anyway, there is alot going on with monoclonal antibodies and the future will be exciting.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next