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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Bill Morel who wrote (6776)1/6/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Ok guys -- and Barbara's -- I'm pissed off and I'm on a roll tonight. Dig this:

Potential Incremental Jackup Demand over the Next 12 Months (data from PetroData)

US Gulf 3-5
North Sea 2-5
Africa 2-3
Latin Amer. 1-4
Asia Pacific 2-4
Mid East/Med 1-2
Total 11-23 (Based on unconstrained supply forecasts.)

The same table for floaters projects 26-36 additional units needed.


This means this is how many more rigs would be needed this year if they were available -- in addition to all the rigs currently in the fleet.

These rigs will not be available. So what will happen is that some rigs will be mobilized to areas that pay higher day rates (like international areas) and this will create a vacuum in the area they departed and then day rates will increase again in that area. Keeping in mind that not all rigs can work in all areas due to weather and class restrictions.

FYI -- The total rig fleet worldwide numbers only roughly 600. Projected demand is for an additional 37 to 59 units or 6-10 percent more than what exists today. Do you think day rates will remain strong? This does not account for rigs that are removed from the fleet because they are just too old to work...most rigs working today were built prior to 1981, lost by accident, or taken out of service for upgrading.

I HAVE NO FEAR !!!
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