Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 142.62

+2.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: John Cuthbertson who wrote (1704)	1/6/1998 8:54:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) of 5867

John, I agreee with most of what Murphy said and do think it is grounded in reality. Can there be any other explanantion for the wild gyrations of the equipment stocks? I understand they are cyclical AND volatile but c'mon, AMAT is up 8% one day then down 6% the next. This is common for these stocks. But what has fundamentally changed in the past 2 days? My own opinion is that most people do not understand technology nor have a vision for the future and hence the wild fluctuations. AMAT's low eps forecast for FY98 is $1.69 and KO's consensus is $1.74. AMAT's growth rate is approximately twice that of KO so in theory AMAT should be trading at twice the level of the sugar-water maker. If KO's price were applied to AMAT, that would put AMAT at about $128!!! I am not arguing that AMAT is worth quite that, but this illustrates my point perfectly. People flock to what they know and understand. KO is valued as such because it has a steady earnings stream and operates in a simple business. Technology frightens many people. Just think of anyone of an older generation trying to program a VCR. It's much the same here. Fair values will not be assigned to these companies until we have more knowledgeable people buying stocks. Additionally, many stocks are bought just on the idea that eps will rise at a 150% clip ad infintium. Stocks like YHOO, AMZN, and NSCP(which has finally come back to earth). There is no way they should be trading at these levels and yet they consistently do. He, the internet cos. are not even sure how** they are going to make money on this new medium. After playing this game for a couple of years, I can honestly say that I believe the "experts," by and large, are clueless. People have the notion that they have informantion we individual investors aren't privy to and thus cannot compete with them. If this is the case, why are 87% of them underperforming the S&P in any given year? We see it again and again. They upgrade after the fact and downgrade after the bad news has been released. Manic-depressives in suits is what Warren Buffet calls them. The only purposes they serve to me is to act as a contrary indicator and drive the stock prices to insane valuations either up or down whereby hopefully I can take advantage of it. I missed out this past August. Sorry for the long post. Regards, Brian

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