Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Thean who wrote (6809)	1/6/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: HH	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Reprinted without permission: from AOL by PEngr Sorry for my absence from The Board, I've been out of town. I don't have the time to respond to all of the e-mail---very sorry to all that I have'nt responded to---at my present pace, I may not be able to repond to so many of you. My 12/19/97 post suggested buy points. I also stated my concern about the overall market (and again in the 12/30/97 post). This market looks very toppy. Several of the major averages along with 30-40% of the individual stocks (in most industrial sectors) have head-and- shoulders tops. In addition, so many others have long sinced topped out and have been in well defined downtrends for quite some time. The drillers had been the market leaders, with the techs in close second. My 11/5/97 "sell drillers" post observed the market weakness of the tech sector and it's breakdown as indicative to me that the drillers would probably soon follow. Today it's the financial sector breaking down---one by one the "bear" takes down nearly every sector. I think that there is a very good chance that we have entered into a bear market. If so, it will take no hostages. The best place to be is in CASH. I have moved to 100% cash position since 12/30/97 post and have shorted a few (in other industries)--- DELL, CPQ, TXN, CCI, BT, MER...and--MSFT (maybe too "bold with this one?) I think that "bargin hunting" in a bear market should be avoided. Remember "The trend is your friend". Only time will tell for sure where we are at---I think that confirmation of the bear will become obvious---if it is such. Look for example for the S&P 500 to take out it's neckline (around 900)---at that point (if it happens), look for a very sharp selloff-----down to the 650 area before any meaningful support. Be very cautious in this atmosphere-----my thoughts are that preservation of capital should be the #1 Goal in a bear market. One thing that the 1972-1974 bear market taught me, was that "bargins" end up becoming "no so good bargins" as the trend continuies. I am Sorry to be the bearer of grim news---- Yours Truly, P Engr.

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