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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16161)	1/7/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) of 50167

AQ, We have "Big Ten of Eleven" down today, Market inability to take out 280 SOX on a close as you have well aptly pointed out as key resistance does not bode well for the overall market, IMHO. I believe its time for a market adjustment on DOW and SPX and to lesser % extent NAZ relative to SOX to retrace an additional 20% (NAZ 15%) from these levels over the next six months. From a fundamental perspective, either earnings have to start catching up to stock valuations immediately or stock valuations must adjust downward back to equilibrium going forward. I have macro #'s to support this analysis that I won't be able to post until tomorrow. Risk in the market is very high now, IMHO. And, after three years of 20% + growth in the market, and no 20% + correction via DOW or SPX since 1990, probabilities from an actuarial standpoint alone dictate 98' will not be a market friendly year. One last thought, the second year of a presidential cycle marketwise from a historical perspective... has not been kind to the market. OMHO... Your prodigal brother... JT

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