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Non-Tech : APCO Automobile Protection Company
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To: Amigo Mike who wrote (673)1/7/1998 2:08:00 AM
From: Cary C  Read Replies (1) of 3351
 
Funny you should ask Mike. I spoke to Todd today matter of fact. Todd told me that the December numbers came in just fine. Todd said that they are comfortable with the consensus estimates. Someone earlier mentioned that both October and November car sales had been better than expected so since their numbers came in just fine for December I would venture to guess that car sales for December in the industry were up also. Mr. Dorfman has stated that they should easily be able to grow at a 30% rate. APCO has always been conservative when stating numbers and I think that is reflective in the 30% figure. Taking a look at the last two quarters, revenues were up 34% and then 45%. This was before the announcement of the Johnson Industries and Sonic Automotive news. They continue to sign up 6 to 10 dealerships a week.
I personally think that 35% to 40 % is still conservative but more reaiistic. I support Mr. Dorfman and the companies conservativeness and understand why they would rather explain how they beat revenue and earnings figures than missed them.

The real key to the revenue increase is that according to Mr. Dorfman thay are going to be able to maintain the overhead costs where they are thus putting more of the increase in the revenue to the bottom line. That can't help but increase earnings per share.

I personally think that they will surprise to the up side by a penny or two. At what I consider a fair pe of at least 30 for a company that has the potential to grw hte business 40% next year, that would give the stock an approximate value of $10 after they report their earnings here in the next month or so.

Cary
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