Float, as a factor, is often overestimated. Shares have to be in play to make a difference, and in the event of big positive or negative news, plenty of shares tend to get out of the way of the stampede, up or down.
The float today is not dramatically different than it was October 13-15 when the price went from 0.375 to 1.4375, or on November 20 when it went from 1.375 to 2.125. I am stating these events from memory, so I could be slightly off, but I would characterize each of these as a big-time move on less than big-time news. Okay, the news was big Oct. 13-15 but was extremely speculative, whereas the kind of news which we might expect in the 2/15 quarterly if not sooner could be both big and substantive, in my very humble opinion.
As the Sacramento Bee reported last weekend, the stock gained 540% for 1997. That's a good move. Is it the last move or the best move for this decade? I don't think so.
In any case, maaad, it is certainly my opinion that a time should come soon enough where you are reasonably pleased to be long at a buck and four bits. Nothing I have heard from Lionel suggests that there will be any blockbuster news at the annual meeting as opposed to the 10Q, but we never know: the day before the meeting seems to me to be the worst time to unload.
Oscar |
