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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: j g cordes who wrote (32375)1/7/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (4) of 58727
 
Jim,

Here is my belief of technicals. In general the shorter term they are used for the more accurate they are. Just from an analytical viewpoint, the longer the period the time the greater the number of variables which the technicals absorb. Small fundamental changes can be absorbed into the technicals, but when the fundamental changes are large they will simply and very easily over ride the technicals.

To answer your question on how much downside is there, analytically and theoretically it can go down to 0. To really determine bottoms, the more accurate method is thru fundamentals.

It would not be a far fetch assumption that if the HiTech bellweathers come out with bad earnings that the probability will increase that the HiTechs could set lower lows.

If there are strong fundamental changes (which is subjective), then it will shift the range of the technicals.

Sorry to talk so much about theory. As for the HiTechs, currently many believe that they have bottomed and that they cannot go lower which was indicative in the recent strength/rally in the HiTechs.

I just did a guitar calculation and I just got my first signal, although weak and definitely not conclusive, that the HiTechs could set lower lows. The real test will be the support lines created by the recent correction in the HiTechs.

I am waiting for the market to reverse upwards and get back to overbought region again, so I can initiate PUTS.

Seeya
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