Today was my first market action for years [other than doing nothing being also a market action].
Short one Tonka Truckland of Tesla aka TSLA at $340.
That creates a problem aka a bunch of US$ which forever have been diluted by the controller at the rate of about 8% a year. Due to Made in China maths and the amazing scientific technological revolution productivity efficiencies, combined with economies of scale, the actual inflation rate is only about 3%, misleading people into thinking their money is not losing ground too fast and maybe even making a bit on interest.
Gold continues in the doldrums. Stock markets at all-time highs so buying shares is not a slam dunk bet. Oil is also in the doldrums - and with gold made out of oil, it's understandable that both are wallowing.
OPEC is in quiet panic mode and has tried to do their silly production cut moves to keep the price up. But they don't understand that the price of oil is a function of competitors such as coal, insulation, methane, photovoltaics, bicycles instead of SUVs, electric cars versus gasoline/diesel, moving closer to work,doing things in Cyberspace instead of by 3D movement Kinetic energy = 1/2mv2 through traffic jams, plus drag, plus time to get there. Even if they make their oil free, it doesn't cause people to REMOVE insulation or unplug their photovoltaics.
The price of oil does have a short term [3 year] supply/demand delay as it takes a while to boost production, but other than that, raising or cutting production doesn't affect the price long term. In fact, the volatility will chase people away from oil because volatility is expensive to manage.
Which is not to say I'm against electric cars in general or Tesla in particular. I have been a paid up member of the electric car fan club since 1986 [when I was pondering competitors to BP Oil's gasoline/diesel and the emissions problem that comes with burning them in cars]. Finally, electric cars make sense. But not at any price and not for any technological variant.
If it makes sense for inefficient internal combustion cars to be made of steel, it makes even more sense for electric cars to be made of steel as it costs less energy to lug that heavy stuff around with electric cars.
Making an electric car super light like the Tesla without the battery, and then installing a ton of battery to get range is not the way to go. Making a car with steel or some other material that is cost effective is the way to go. If it''s cost-effective in gasoline/diesel cars, it's even more so in electric.
To get reduced weight, use a smaller battery and recharge with 7SSS stations [7 second swap stop] when on the go and with Halo when stopping somewhere for a while.
A little car, with a 100 kg 7SSS battery, and Halo on board for recharging at supermarkets, at home, at the parking building, on the side of the road, is the way to keep the car cheap, the delays negligible, and convenience perfect. No cables in the rain or snow.
Markets are at an all-time high. So down is an option. It's nearly 10 years since the last big decline.
Mqurice
PS: bitcoin speculation going nuts! But it's cheap at the price if it replaces US$ and all the other fiat currencies. But it has built in weakness - stupidly long block chains and enormous energy consumption to do competitive "mining". No security if somebody gets hold of the code - it's fungible cash. A hard fork would reduce value. The point of money is to be ubiquitous, fungible and network effect, with reliability and efficiency, with no scams available to politicians or electorates or revolutions. |
