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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets
IDTI 48.990.0%Mar 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Dale Stempson who wrote (5577)1/7/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) of 11555
 
Lehman has been holding off on downgrades in the sector, probably waiting to digest the news on impacts in Asia. The Atmel bomshell probably tipped their hat. This was not that unexpected but certainly is not a good thing to see.

I think the tech stocks, particularly those, like Atmel, that sell a lot of product into Asian markets, will continue to get hammered for another 3-4 months. Beyond that who knows?

The trouble with major financial restructurings is that they don't occur overnight. The semi equipment stocks are bound to see more bloodshed - probably to the point where many earnings forecasts are are cut by half or more and the stocks get so out of favor that no one wants to touch them. I don't think we have reached that point yet and they still have 15%-25% more downside left. Many of the semi stocks may come out rising from the ashes relatively soon. The best thing to do is to be invested only in thsoe stocks that have limited exposure to Asian markets. If Intel, TI and other belwheather semis come in with less than disastrous earnings and reports that things realy aren't all that bad, then the sector could rally nicely. but if these guys take the woes in Asia as a scapegoat for failure to reach projections in other areas, then the sector could tank until the oputlook improves.

I think it is good that financing to debt ridden Asian firms is tightening up significantly - even to the point of their collapse. The US and other economies should not be blackmailed into propping up bankrupt national strategies if the are not entirely open to foreign ownership. None of this 55% ownership limit bullshit that S. Korea still imposes. Let the bankrupt firms go under and international bankers take their medicine. In the short term that will cause havoc in the tech stocks. But in the longer term it will mean more stable supply and prices for parts and electronics products. From an investment standpoint I am very cautious about the tech sector despite the glowing prospects for specific companies and the bright future ahead.
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