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Gold/Mining/Energy : Global Platinum & Gold (GPGI)
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To: Randall E. Brubaker who wrote (4645)1/7/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: SnakeInATuxedo  Read Replies (1) of 14226
 
Mr. Oldman's case for a deflationary depression is compelling, no doubt, but there are too many signs that we've reached at least a respite in the descent, if not what in retrospect will be recognised as a major turning point.

The price action in the bond markets on Monday and Tuesday morning was classic "exhaustion" buying. The bond market passed a number of bullish milestones in November and December of 1997. They were:
1] The Dow Utility Average surpassing its 1993 peak.
2] The Bond Buyer 20-Bond Municipal Index surpassing its 1993 peak.
3] The news that the year-on-year U.S. budget showed a surplus for the first time since 1969.
4] The entire month of December with market participants telling us why the Asian crisis will keep rates low.
This is a string of bullish consensus that has probably exhausted buying potential in the bond market.

Now, gold. On December 14th, 1997 the Financial Times ran a full-page, giant-type headline article which proclaimed the "Death of Gold", and went on, in the article, to conclude that "As an investment... gold is a goner". For those with long memories, this is eerily reminiscent of the now-hilarious-in-retrospect Business Week cover story which solemnly proclaimed "The Death of Equities" in.... take an educated guess now.. that's right... 1982.. scant months before the current bull market began its historic ascent on August 17th, 1982.

About all we need now for a trigger is for some loose cannon somewhere to go off by accident.
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