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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices
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To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (364)1/7/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: RagTimeBand  Read Replies (1) of 8010
 
Hi Tom

>>I know that the commercials tend to be correct in calling the market, but do you happen to know if they got caught out in the rain on platinum and palladium?<<

Sorry it's taken me so long to get back to you. As a disclaimer: I'm not a trader and from looking at the data for a couple of years now, I don't believe the COT data is useful as a trading tool. For some commodities it appears to be a worthwhile leading-indicator. Finally, I'm only looking for cases where there's an "out-of-norm" situation. With that said, it should be obvious the following is FWIW.

WRT (With Respect To) COT positions since Jan. 1986:

Palladium: - Volatility has increased since May 1995 with all time highs in late 1995 followed by even higher highs in fall of 1996. These highs were followed by all time lows in spring 1997. Recently (Dec. 1997) their position has risen to the late 1995 levels. I've misplaced the exact number but they're currently over 2 std dev from the mean.

I haven't been overwhelmed by the accuracy of the Palladium and Platinum commercial hedgers.

Platinum: - In late Dec. 1997 the commercial hedgers were at an all time high position.

One of the charts that currently has my attention is T-Bonds:

Since April of 1997 the volatility has increased, mostly in the downward direction. In late Jul the lowest low ever was recored, this was followed by even lower lows in Oct and Dec. These lows were separated by spikes upward in Sept. and Nov.. It's a downward channel (?? is that the right word) with "lower highs" and "lower lows". In mid-Dec the headger position exceeded 3 std dev (in the negative direction). This indicates a strong possibility of higher interest rates.

I hope the above is understandable and helps.

Regards - Emory
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