Dennis:
Playing futures is dangerous -- however, buying Put options limits your down-side losses vis a vis short selling.
As I mentioned before, if you could accurately answer the deflation/inflation question you might have the answer. No one knows -- advisory services are all over the map on this one.
Let me ask you, do you think the IMF has done anything to correct the Asian "glitches" raised to the N th. power?
US currency is as solid as it comes and the currency market is not as yet a reasonable option -- although it could become more viable in the future along with gold.
Conversly, if you think the Bull market will last forever then you are forfeiting some day-trading profits. If the equity market falters and the bear takes over -- thinking deflation/inflation -- what will be the value of your safe, good-as-US-cash, 30-treasury position? Don't you think the new purchasing power might offset the "undesirable yield"?
Yes the treasury long bond is at an all time high -- but consider the span of existance of that issue. What were interest rates back in the '50s, '40s, '30s, etc...
I think your IRA may be doing a good job for you, at least for the time being.
Ciao, Ted |
