CARA: So today the IV pain trials powering readout hit, and the news is OK. Enrollment continues and is expected to complete by year end, giving an efficacy and safety readout in 1H18. "No significant changes in the monitored safety parameters." This includes serum sodium levels, the parameter that caused the hold and dose reduction. I gather that, even if the IDMC hadn't seen any efficacy, the trial would not have been stopped for futility (I don't think they were even looking at that). However, the fact that they are not having to add patients and thus delay the readout suggests at least some efficacy is there. So overall, this derisks the IV pain indication (and to a lesser extent, the other indications), and the stock is up ~9%.
I continue to hold my put insurance against the shares in my taxable account, waiting for the oral OA results to hit. In my IRA, where I don't do options, my only money management strategy available was to sell a chunk. There I sold half a few minutes ago at $19.45, and expect to hold the remainder for some time.
Back of the envelope numbers suggest the pruritus indication alone justifies the share price. Thus, if there were a flop in the pain indications and the stock tanked below mid-teens, I would add, in both accounts.
Cheers, Tuck |
