Really any price predictions based on charts are generally after stability (production) or during a spec runnup.
Once we get the permit, its all EPS from there on in.
So you can with ease pre-predict what the EPS should be and then the only issue is "multiple".
I am sticking with a 5 multiple for the first bit.
So assuming $20,000US per ton, then we have 1675 tons per year
using 1.31 conversion thats $44,000,000 Canuck
If you then take the $13.75million Marble contract And assume $9,000,000 profit after expenses.
That $9,000,000 profit can be used as a credit toward Graphite costs associated with the Graphite mine.
All in we are $8000 a tonne to mine Graphite so $7000 a regular ton.
$7000 X 1675 tons=$11,725,000 in expenses for Graphite
We have a $9,000,000 Credit from Marble, which means All in Left over Costs after Marble Credits for both operations is $2,725,000
So we NET $41,000,000 ($44,000,000-$2,275,000) Canuck a year from both operations expenses paid. Thats 38c a share
5 multiple too start and we are at $1.90
So my target of $2.50 is based on $25,000US a ton not $20,000US a ton as used above
and perhaps a better multiple as we get into the second year of production.
If we get a second marble contract than add in another $9,000,000 too total Net Revenues.
If you approach it from Gross revenues than we are approaching $60,000,000 and with a multiple of 5 we do much better. But, I believe the markets are gun shy all Graphite companies so do not see that happening until people realize we are making money.
Just in case you do not remember, I was equally bad forecasting ZEN at this stage too, (when it could not get above 40c, it was only after it held 40c on the pullback that ALGO worked. |
