NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA
How Long Before the U.S. Is in Range?
North Korea wants a nuclear-tipped missile that can hit major cities in the continental U.S. There are three main components to the device and Pyongyang appears to be making rapid progress in each of them.
By Andrew James, Alastair Gale and MinJung Kim
Published July 6, 2017 at 05:00 a.m. ET
wsj.com
THE MISSILE
North Korea needs a launch vehicle that can reach the U.S. West Coast or beyond.
North Korean inter-continental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 being launched. PHOTO: KCNA/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
THE WARHEAD
North Korea needs a nuclear bomb small enough to mount on a long-range missile and durable enough to survive re-entry from space.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and weapons researchers last year gathered around what may be a nuclear explosive. PHOTO: EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY/KCNA
THE PLATFORM
The ideal launch platform is a mobile carrier, which would allow a missile to be fired from almost any location and remain hidden from U.S. missile strikes until just before launch.
The North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 being prepared before a test launch. PHOTO: KCNA/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK
There's no consensus on when North Korea will clear all these hurdles, so The Wall Street Journal asked three experts to answer the following question:
HOW LONG DO YOU ESTIMATE IT WILL BE BEFORE NORTH KOREA CAN DEPLOY A NUCLEAR-TIPPED MISSILE ABLE TO HIT THE US MAINLAND?
Joshua Pollack
Editor of the The Nonproliferation Review and Senior Research Associate, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey, Calif.
BY END OF 2019 If they can't be persuaded to desist, my best guess would be that the North Koreans will complete a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile flight-test campaign culminating in success by the end of 2019, with some flights taking place from mobile launchers. I give them the benefit of the doubt about already having a reliable, deliverable nuclear warhead. John Schilling
Aerospace engineer and consultant to 38North website, a North Korea focused website produced by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
2018 OR 2019 The Hwasong-14 test came somewhat sooner than expected but its relatively short range will need to be corrected and verified with future tests. Demonstrating accuracy and reliability, and training the operational missile crews, will also take some time. Given the progress demonstrated so far that will take a year or two and it will be a mobile and nuclear-capable ICBM from day one. Markus Schiller
CEO, ST Analytics GmbH, Germany
IN 8 TO 10 YEARS There are several milestones, including development flight tests, tests under real conditions and tests that aim to hit a target at the same range as the U.S. This could take up to a decade, but once they have completed it they will be able to add any warhead they have available and use a mobile platform to launch the missile. |
