Peter,
I subscribe to TSC, and read that too. But I thought SEG was special, since this is the 3rd pre-announce, and 3rd negative Qtr (after "one-time" charges) in a row. I was looking for signs of a turn-around. I did not find them, so Cramer's rule seems prudent in this case. I'll be back next Qtr, though. Good luck to all SEG longs.
A story: Last qtr, I was waiting for COMS to bottom and start back up again. It did, and one day I saw it pull back. Near the close, it started recovering, and so I interpreted it as the elusive "double-bottom" and bought it 10 minutes before the bell. Unfortunately, 20 minutes later they warned. Yet when it opened the next day, it was only down a few points, not the several that almost everyone was expecting. I waited an hour or two and sold, thinking I was lucky to get out for just a few points loss. Then COMS proceeded to go up for the next few days. I had turned a possible profit into a loss. Cramer explained it in a column as one of his "tells". Seems he shorted COMS when I went long. He correctly interpreted the opening price action and covered before the runup, whereas I scratched my head and wondered and sold at a loss. What I'm trying to say is, watch for the chance (albeit, a slim one) that SEG may be tomorrow's "tell". If it doesn't drop hard at the open, it may just have found a near term bottom. |
