Digital TVs: coming to a living room near you
By Matthew Broersma
January 7, 1998 5:49 PM PST
ZDNN
zdnet.com
With their wide, huge screens, not to mention stunningly vivid images, they're probably better quality than what you'd find in some movie theaters. Welcome to the world of digital television.
Many will get their first exposure to digital TV starting Thursday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where big electronics manufacturers such as Zenith and Sharp will be showing off the first sets aimed at the retail market.
With wide-format screens more than 60 inches on the diagonal, the sets are impressive on the physical level alone. But their real selling point is that they're entirely digital, capable of displaying images many times more detailed than the conventional, analog models they are intended to replace.
Of all the new gadgets being introduced this year, it would be hard to match the hype surrounding this new technology, which the FCC insists must replace analog television by the year 2006.
But despite the FCC deadline, industry experts say it will be a long time before consumers tune in.
According to independent analyst Rob Agee, the rate at which digital, high-definition TV will be adopted is "the billion dollar question," he said. "It really depends on how consumers receive HDTV, so to speak.
"I don't think the mandated deadline will hold up in the next years," Agee added. "I think the FCC will realize it is an unrealistic goal -- noble, but unrealistic."
The glitzy new sets stand out at an event whose usual fare is relatively affordable, mass-market items: None are available in stores yet, and when they are, they will run in the thousands of dollars.
Several television makers plan to bring the high-end boxes to market late this year, when 26 stations in the 10 largest markets are due to begin digital broadcasts. By November 1999, network affiliates in the next 20 largest markets will kick in.
The advantages of digital TV are clear: The picture and sound are far better than possible in analog format, and these features, combined with the wide-screen format, promise to make watching television more of a cinematic experience. The new sets should also be more closely compatible with computers.
But admission isn't cheap. Besides the initially stratospheric cost of the sets themselves, television broadcasters are each spending tens of millions of dollars to upgrade their facilities. And despite an industry-wide commitment to the format, it's far from clear how the digital revolution will proceed, according to analysts.
"It's very early for this stuff," said Clay Ryder, a senior analyst with Zona Research Inc., which follows high-tech markets. "It's like having the first autos with pneumatic tires. It took a long time for people to start using tires with inner tubes instead of solid rubber ... and a lot longer for them to start using tires without inner tubes."
Unlike the change from black-and-white to color television, digital signals are completely incompatible with analog signals.
"There is a gigantic chasm between digital TV and analog TV," said Agee. "When color was introduced, you could still see color programming on your black-and-white set. [But] without some modifications, you can't see digital TV on an analog set."
Agee noted that the first digital-to-analog converting set-top boxes will probably cost more than a new television does now. And since digital TV will be broadcast in wide-screen format, the image on an analog television would be reduced to a strip in the center of the screen.
Still, experts predict the set-top boxes will be popular. "Anybody that has a 27-inch-or-over TV will be a prime candidate for an HDTV set-top," said analyst Gary Schultz with Multimedia Research Group Inc. "The set-top business is going to expand faster than the wide-screen business."
As for the possible convergence of the PC and the television -- seemingly foreshadowed by set-top boxes such as WebTV -- analysts say the notion might never fly with consumers.
"I happen to think [television and computers] are two very different things," said analyst Ryder. "People surf the Internet on their TV? I think there's a fundamental issue here. People who are being couch potatoes so that they can have a passive viewing experience are not going to want to use PCs. The computer is a very interactive experience."
Other items sure to draw attention at the Consumer Electronics Show are pen-based handheld computers running Microsoft's Windows CE, some of which use E-mail; information-crunching wristwatches; and telephones that allow users to read their E-mail without going online.
Rob Lemos contributed to this report. |
