Bruce,
The facts: ORG's apligraf is scheduled for the same panel the end of the month that dermagraft is scheduled for...so, yes, they are finally getting their opportunity. They announced this in a press release a few weeks back.
The observations/opinions: Interestingly ORG has not been particularly strong thus far in January, giving the impression that either people aren't overly impressed in anticipation or that it had gotten too far ahead of itself prior to all this, or for that matter, that maybe it just isn't close enough to the meeting yet. I still have many concerns about ORG, as have been posted before.
One primary concern is their lack of information regarding actual peer reviewed studies and, more so, the lack of info. about which version of apligraf is up for review. It looks like it is not the cryopreserved version, although I can't guarantee this. If this is the case, the shelf life would be measured in days, having heard ranges from 3-5. Their product is already far more expensive than dermagraft, and here would be another factor to add to the expense. Although most of the procedures for ORG's apligraf will be scheduled on an elective basis, giving time for shipment, I'm not sure the expenses will merit this, nor will the feasibility if there are other options. It will be a hard market to penetrate for any of these companies regardless unless they make it very hospital, physician, patient, and third-party payer friendly.
What to do with your investment...can't answer that for you. Your options depend on what you think ORG will do and how much of a gambler you are. Remember that when shorting how much you can lose isn't limited, and you are investing in multiple companies in the same industry, so you'll want to look at what your needs are for investing vs. play money at this point(like any investing in biotech anywhere isn't gambling at its best!).
ATIS volume continues to generally remain strong. I'd like to see this occur in a consistent way without manic-depressive swings for a consistent gradual move, although eventually something will have to give if everything comes through, as I don't think all of the short-sellers will sit through this, especially if they shorted initially at 15 and under. Glad to hear you have found the info useful...and I thought I was just babbling along the way. If I'd known anybody was actually making decisions based on this, I'd never have posted! :)
Good luck with your investments. Hoping my stake in RAIN doesn't kill me yet...don't like drops like they had today.
Take care,
Marshall |
