Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (14263)	1/8/1998 12:52:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (3) of 70976

PV, The uncertain market and earnings are too much of a wild card to make valid projections for a while until things settle down a bit. I think everyone is holding their breath waiting for INTC and a few other "biggies" to announce earnings and projections on this years business outlook before making commitments to the tech sector. Even if INTC earnings are neutral (not bad) there will still be nervous anxiety going forward due to uncertainty of Japan's financial "crisis". As the Yen continues to devalue against US currency it makes American made commodity and equipment sales appear more costly and will adversely affect sales margins of US companies with high exposure in the Japanese marketplace. The whole developing Pac-Rim area seems very unstable for the next 6 months or so (at least), because of this I feel the tech sector will stay weak for quite a while. I'm still projecting around $41 for the high for AMAT, the only caveat is bad news from management or announced delays/cancellations of equipment purchases already accounted for during the next 2 quarters. Atmel announced weak earnings and a "not so good" short term outlook and also Seagate gave a warning, I feel that this is the start of a rash of bad or "cautious" statements by numerous high tech companies that will really depress investments in the tech sector. Look for your DW outlook to change to the negative next week and in the coming weeks for the techs. A longer term concern of mine is that US companies may start investing heavily in the Pac-Rim countries since labor and other "costs" will be cheaper there now, which will see more manufacturing leaving US shores and jobs going overseas. Not good long term, may be the start of a wave soon, that will increase US unemployment and put us into a recessionary mode next year or in '99. This is conjecture on my part but I truly believe it will happen. An analogy would be like a siphon from a full fish tank into an empty fish tank, as the water leaves the full tank the level goes down while the level rises in the empty tank. On another note, keep some cash ready to buy depressed tech stocks that will rebound in 6-12 months as they approach their bottom prices for the year. To "borrow" a common phrase:"BUY WHEN BLOOD IS RUNNING IN THE STREETS". Just my opinion, BB

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