Dennis--agree with you 100%...TRUST and CREDIBILITY is key in any relationship, including that of a Company and its' stockholders...
While I have no problem supporting RAIN from a fundamental basis, here is what I'm pondering as I decide whether to move my stock or not:
1) is all the bad news REALLY out?? (boy, I hope so!)
2) what creative (but legal) accounting took place to get EPS to
$.23 or $.24 per share for the 4th quarter?...lots of things can
be done relating to deferrals, reserves, amortizations, etc....
3) why a 13-point drop, when the revised fundamentals might have
suggested a correction of less than half that amount?...
4) RAIN is comfortable with 1998 EPS of $1.20...so I believe that
WHY????....
5) who missed so badly on the retail business model??...I've been
to Tyson's and Grapevine (live here), and could care less about
99% of the 3,000 items in stock...heck, I even think there are
too many varieties of shirts and sweaters...I do love my pewter
key chain, though...do outlet mall shoppers want to buy from our
retail area?...not all of our sites are on Disney territory...
6) is RAIN a viable takeover candidate at this price level?...IF
the fundamentals are still solid, the Company should probably
be in play at this stock level...(why should Brinker's Int'l,
for example, build a concept, when it can buy one?)
7) is the stock dead for two quarters after the "dead cat bounce"?..
we said adios to the momentum/high growth funds today, and we're
not going to get them back (missing earnings has a long-term
impact here)...stock appreciation will come from value funds and
individuals...
8) how much management focus and $$$ will be spent to revamp retail?
9) how many dollars will be spent to promote the restaurants that
are lagging?...
10) what lessons should be learned from opening 3 restaurants in one
metropolitan area?...
and, finally.....
11) do I trust Mr. Berman with my money?...
I have no answers here, only questions...such is the life of the lonely stockholder...one promise, though--I will not completely exit out of RAIN, because the passes are GOLD to me, and I want some more!
Regards......Keith |
