My delayed take on the August 2017 MVIS CC
Finally had the time to listen to the CC and read some of the discussion board posts. (Thanks for all the insights and perspectives.) As usual, I find several messages coming through.
Optimist
Ragentek's initial $6.7M
+ $24M for a high-res display
+ $30M-$60M from LiDAR? starting in 3Q17 (that's now!)
+ development contracts for AR and ADAS
+ a "homerun" product in about three years
=
a long stream of record setting and attention grabbing news and products.
Pessimist
Cash received gets obfuscated by bookkeeping conventions.
Existing customers don't seem to be overjoyed as evidenced by a lack of additional orders from Sony, Celluon, Pioneer, and Sharp.
I noted there were few notes to take because most of the conversation is subjective rather than objective. NDAs continue to rule.
Attempting to average the Optimist and the Pessimist
One or two pieces of good luck can make MVIS a darling at any time.
The stock may not move until cash shows up as revenues and revenues show up as profits.
Going back to the Nomad, MicroVision has been associated with about a dozen products that haven't made the company profitable. It looks like they're finally in enough products with enough customers for large enough orders that something is going to make the company successful. Based on luck, that could happen any day. Based on reported data, that probably won't happen until the next earnings report, and probably the one after that. Based on history - nah, I'm tired of going there.
One personal revelation: Evidently, I am on the optimistic side because I was calculating how many shares I could buy with some spare cash. Careful, Tom, careful. |
