Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 148.32

-3.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4360)	1/8/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) of 10921

I'll be very interested in your report and thanks in advance for the work. I'm not a "bull". If you'll look back over the Cymer thread, you'll see I got some heat for a post that started "Sell!" and an earlier post warning the thread that it was time to get defensive. Thank heaven that even though some people called me "stupid" I didn't get the "you're just a short trying to spread fear" bs. There's nothing that aggravates me more than people 1) making personal attacks on people who disagree with them, and 2) people who drive off negative opinion. Not wanting to hear the negatives on an issue is the dumbest thing an investor can do, and the hallmark of an emotional investor who's going to lose his shirt. So enough ranting, sorry. Regarding your post, you should realize that the semiconductor industry no longer publishes a book-to-bill, but the semi equipment industry does. The semiconductor industry does still publish a monthly sales figure. I also agree in part and disagree in part about equipment makers' earnings being driven by semiconductor co's net earnings. I can't time the cycles that closely, but chip production volume is as important as earnings. They need the earnings to afford the equipment, but the demand comes from gross sales levels. Maybe sales would satisfy us both. The long-term (3-year) growth cycle is going to continue up. Part of the slowing right now is artificial, as the Koreans (and to a lesser degree the Japanese and other Asians) can't afford to purchase equipment they need. Eventually someone else with a better-run business will step up to take up the slack -- look at Taiwan SC in the DRAM arena, for instance. Do not doubt that global chip (and all IC, which impacts a lot of companies in the semi equipment industry) demand is growing and will continue to grow. The rate of growth may slow, but in the long run, this isn't going to affect semi equipment fabs at the current valuations.

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