Joe, thanks for the patient reply to my wild speculation of a day ago.
Let me restate my argument. If IBM can produce +1 million GX chips this quarter, and if other fabs are coming on line, where are all the GX chips going? Compaq's laptops can only command a small portion of this total.
Second, the cost advantages of the GX are such that I don't buy the argument that these chips are simply going to disappear into overseas markets. A major Japanese OEM may lay claim to them for laptops, but his will be another big design win.
Third, I don't buy the argument that the GX's 486/586 core or its megahertz rating is the reason why Compaq and others would presumably move to the K6 as a lost-cost chip of choice for all computer systems. The reason is that NT5.0 and Windows 98 can cut the hardware requirements of business computers substantially. Consider the following story:
byte.com
"The high cost of maintaining Windows PCs has become a strategic issue as Sun and its allies challenge Microsoft's domination of the desktop with their centrally maintained network computer (NC) concept. Microsoft countered with the hastily concocted NetPC standard. But behind the scenes it's readying Citrix's MultiWin technology as a not-so-secret weapon in the cost-of-ownership wars."
"MultiWin boosts NT so that many users can run applications such as Word and Excelsimultaneously on the same server, driving them remotely from user interfaces running on inexpensive terminals. Unlike NCs, these client terminals don't need to download any OS or application code, so they can be very "thin" indeed. Citrix claims a minimum hardware requirement of an Intel 286 processor or equivalent and 640KB of RAM, far skinnier than any NC or X Window System terminal. An independent report found that 30 MultiWin clients can run Excel or Word simultaneously on a twin-Pentium server without taking a big performance hit. Like X, MultiWin works by packing up the Graphical Device Interface (GDI) commands that ordinarily control an application's local display and sending them across a communications link to the client for execution (see the figure). The client doesn't have to be a PC; it can be a Mac or a Unix workstation running suitable client software. Citrix has invented an efficient protocol, called Intelligent Console Architecture (ICA), to send the display commands."
"Unlike the bit-mapped screen images that a conventional remote-control program would send, ICA messages are very compact, needing as little as 20 Kbps of bandwidth to interactively control a typical Microsoft Office application. Thus, humble transports, such as 10-Mbps Ethernet, ISDN, and even 28.8-Kbps modem links, are adequate -- they act as thin wires for thin clients. ICA can run over all the popular network protocols, including TCP/IP, IPX/SPX, NetBEUI, and PPP."
"Citrix developed the MultiWin technology for its own WinFrame application server, which already has 500,000 users worldwide. Microsoft purchased a license for MultiWin and rolled it into Windows NT5.0, under the code name Hydra. Microsoft is substituting its own T.Share protocol (which is used in NetMeeting) in place of ICA, but Citrix will offer suitable adapter software to its own user base."
"MultiWin/Hydra will enable roving laptop users to dial in to mission-critical applications running on their home server and allow task-based users of green-screen mainframe terminals to painlessly upgrade to Windows applications. Expect the technology to also turn up in special-purpose terminals, from street kiosks to pocketable PDAs. Desktop Windows terminals are expected to cost around $500; the server and client software cost is currently $200 to $400 per seat."
I think it is highly probable that Cyrix--and IDT's C6 for that matter-will come up with a major OEM design win for a business-oriented box sometime over the next several months because of such OS/software changes scheduled for 1998. (These changes probably herald the the beginning of the end of the Wintel duopoloy.) Someone is probably stockpiling chips right now. The only thing that might rain on the parade is Micrsoft's tussle with the DOJ.
P.S. 1 to 15 Intel:Cyrix cpu ratios sounds pretty good to me. Or "render unto Intel the servers; render unto Cyrix everything else." |
