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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 125.97-1.0%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jim Patterson who wrote (27106)1/8/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: Meathead  Read Replies (2) of 176387
 
Re: That means at some point Price will become the primary
tool to gain further share. That is the point in an industry
where premimum valuations are lost.

I agree. When that occurs, I will divest myself of PC stocks.
My opinion however is that we are still a ways off. Two things
will have to happen to raise the exit flag for me:

1. When I can look at technology roadmaps and see a definite
slowdown in the pace of advancements across more than 50% of
hardware and software technologies.

2. When 4 or 5 PC companies control over three fourths of the
PC market.

I suspect that market share domination will occur first and
within 3-5 years. However, the pace of technological change
continues to accelerate and I don't see any end in sight.

Less than 10 years from now, standard processor speeds will
be in the Gigahertz, HD capacities in the Terabytes and
Memory denseties in many Gigabytes. Software will offer
capabilities we can only dream of today.

This virtually guarantees many more cycles of obsolescence
which is absolutely key in this industry.

The major mistake many folks are making is assuming that PC's
are not poised to advance as much as they have in the past.
Some have even suggested that we've arrived in terms of PC
capabilities which I find to be comically naive.

MEATHEAD

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