Don. Houston is a little tiny .001% of the bigger picture....... we are looking at global flow of funds, what
the global currency and interest rate markets are doing and what those currency interest rate differentials are
doing.... and then watch capital flows and capital flight that occurs around the world.
not to be critical but 75% of your posts ......especially the ones from 6 and 8 weeks ago were primarily focusing on the VIX and ancillary aspects of volatility indexes... especially in US stocks.....
that is a very, very narrow focus.
What Ray Dalio, Howard Marks, Gundlach, Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, Jimmy Rodgers, Druckenmiller, Carl Ichan, Sam Zell "the GraveDancer" , David Abrams... Leon Cooperman, Seth Klarman, David Einhorn, Michael Einhorn, Michael Steinhardt, Carl Ichan and a dozen other really sharp long term
global macro asset managers are all sitting with prodigious quantities of cash and also have trades put on that
are "RIsk OFF " trades.. that make money when US equities go down.
I know who's been spending his time with the Parrotheads... wearing those colorful Island shirts and listening to Jimmy Buffet..........
The huge massive budget that will try to be advanced in Sept will be INCREDIBLY problematic........
knock down drag out fights over the increasing of the debt ceiling.... and the money has already been spent...
those talking about big infrastructure programs.... and rebuilding Houston....... there is no money to do it.
There are 2 wings of the Republican party, the tea party, and Rand Paul and the Libertarians and fiscal conservatives that are not going to sign off on a blank check....... and Congress can do absolutely nothing
to make the ACA more fiscally responsible ( Nancy Pelosi, and the Democratic Senate that did not even try to create a budget for 5 years, when they were in Power should be ostracized)
Sit back and watch the power of the the 7th year decennial cycle..... and we shall see Miami.... underwater in a much more profound and lasting state due to all the building at or below sea level........ it floods when the sun is out and there is no rain now......... that is a Den of Inequity... South Beach etc... that shall be dealt with .... with poetic justice....
These charts are from August 17th....... and look at the bearishness of them.... and not a single one has improved...they have all deteriorated while sentiment is resiliently bullish..
Dow Theory is not on a buy signal with the Transports below their 200 dma and weakening........ the Transports were leaders of the market on the way up .... and for 100 the DJIA has been the last thing to top out .... it's used at bull market tops to keep the public long........ at the wrong time...
STOCKS HAVE A BAD DAY -- S&P 500 FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A MONTH -- THE RUSSELL 2000 CLOSES BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO DO THE TRANSPORTS -- VOLATILITY MEASURES SPIKE HIGHER -- AUGUST IS LIVING UP TO ITS REPUTATION AS ONE OF THE YEAR'S MOST DANGEROUS MONTHS
By John Murphy
S&P 500 FALLS TO SIX-WEEK LOW... Selling pressure resumed with a vengeance today. And a lot of support levels have been broken. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling back below its 50-day average to the lowest level in more than a month. Volume was higher. More serious damage was done to smaller stocks. Chart 2 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index closing below its 200-day average for the first time in more than a year. Yesterday's message explained why it was important for the RUT to find support around its 200-day average. It's failure to do so is a bad sign for the market. The same is true with transports. Chart 3 shows the Dow Transports plunging more than 2% today and closing just below their 200-day average. Airlines were the biggest losers. My message from yesterday also explained why it was important for that group to hold that support line. That makes today's big selloff even more troubling. All market sectors fell today with the biggest losses in technology, industrials, financials, and cyclicals. Staples and utilities suffered the smallest losses which is normal in a market pullback. The CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index spiked 32% higher, while the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) surged 30%. It looks like August is living up to its reputation as one of year's most dangerous months. And September still lies ahead.
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Chart 1
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Chart 2
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Chart 3
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