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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (19810)8/29/2017 5:57:36 PM
From: rogermci®2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Don Green
The Ox

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Hi John. With all due respect, I have to disagree with a couple of thoughts in your post.

You said current sentiment is resiliently bullish. Latest AAII sentiment shows 28% bullish and fear and greed index is at extreme fear. Small snapshot but says something.

The predictive value of overall market direction imo by the Russell is next to nil. In today's market, that particular index in 2017 is bot driven and in an essentially trendless market as we've had since March will inevitably be driven lower especially when the earnings calendar is quiet.

Finally, the Transportation index did in fact lose it's 200 dma and I watch it closely but has since recaptured that level. It includes railroads who ship a lot of coal and oil and airlines which carry a high number of international passengers. However, the index I use that I think is more a leading indicator of market direction is the Dow Jones US Trucking Index

stockcharts.com

This index consists of all publicly traded US trucking companies and imo is the purest domestic measure of future freight movement signaling overall increased US economic activity. It is up almost 10% since August 1 while the overall market is down. In recent years it has been a reasonable leading economic indicator.

Just my 2 cents worth and I understand your post pertained more to the overall world markets and capital flows and what the "smart money" is doing, but I think most of the domestic concerns you highlight are already discounted by the market. We shall see.

Thanks for sharing all your insights though as I learn a lot. Only on SI.
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