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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (347805)

8/31/2017 2:23:36 PM

From: cosmicforce

Read Replies (3) of 540681

This is because "climate" as a word has become politicized by the RW. They'd be apostates to say otherwise and have to deal with all sorts of ugly realities to which they've subscribed to "alternate realities".

An area of study for me was climate. Weather is usually seen as week by week patterns where year over year is relegated to "climate". So in this framework - there is weather variability and climate variability. There is a lot of "noise" in both signals but cumulative deviations from the mean are a powerful tool. If five summers in a row are above average - the chance of that happening is based upon simple statistics - it is not looking good for them.

Interpreting the table below - in any 100 year period - there would normally be three times where five years of consecutive deviation from normal would happen. If they are seeing more often than that, it is presumptively "climate change".

Situation hotter/ colder than mean	Probability it's due to chance
one year	50%
two years	25%
three years	12.5%
four years	6.25%
five years	3.125%

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