A few charts..
lets start off with the 20 year monthly NASD Compq chart which is done in equivolume bars..... 1st of all we decisively took out the 5132 high which was the High water mark for the NASD bubble back in March of 2000...that was taken out to the upside in the second half of 2016... quite bullish in the long term.
2) The month price bars have managed to get a bit outside and above the upper bollinger band, this is bullish as it shows upside momentum and markets typical go on to make a higher high when they are above the BB... if they are topping the will go no where near going above the higher BB.
3)We have had pretty stable volume on the advance the past 6 to 8 months.
4) The Month RSI Moving average cross over system is telling us 2 bullish things first the RSI has hit a higher high than the momentum high of 3 to 4 months ago... that is indicating accelerating momentum and
at a minimum you would expect to see a higher high in price going forward, with a lower high on the RSI, THUS creating a potential momentum sell divergence.... that is presently not the case...... -- so this is bullish.
5) the RSI moving average crossover system is on a solid buy. --- bullish
6) the Full stochastic is suggesting the opportunity for a price pull back of some nature... but it is not predictive
of the magnitude and has over all been a generating bullish looking market.
Now remember this is a monthly chart and so you can get a 10/12% correction or even a 17% correction while keeping the larger bull scenario on track.
The daily 1 year Nasd
one the 1 year comp...the NASD has done a nice job of generally holding the 50 dma and has now been vaulting up northward... new highs distinctly possible
we have had a nice move up in the full stochastic and it shows no sign of rolling over as of yet....more upside.. Again the springy price actions the last 3 days is nicely bullish.
The Money flow index is improving and the Chaikin after giving us little scare by tinkering with going negative is back in positive territory and is improving at the moment..
Prices today slightly exceeded the upper bollinger band .... very bullish especially if we see a bigger break above the upper BB tomorrow or next week.
A 3 year chart of the USD, for all of the fear and consternation regarding an excessively weak USD.... you can see that we are at the bottom of the range of the 3 year Wykoff box and This protracted sell off has gotten people bearish on the buck more due to the length of time of the correction.. and yet we have held the line in sand that has provided a few bearish fake outs of the past 3 years....
a Plus to the cheaper dollar is that overseas corporate earnings will carry a bigger bang for the buck due to the increasing competitiveness of US products and services when the dollar get towards the relatively undervalued side of the pendulum.
This is a 3 year EUR/USD WyKoff chart and I have made a number vertical lines when the Bollinger Band
width and t demonstrated how the market will top and bottom when the BB % get large or small enough.
I left all the vertical lines the same and was going to see if anyone could observe the difference in why some tops coincide exactly with price tops and some bottoms align perfectly with th BB% at low levels.
Some times they don't .... why would that be. since I am in a generous mode I will share with you an
extremely use technique.
what your will find is that when you use the BB % study.... It will be spot on in the corrective waves of a bull
or bear market but the primary trend of the market you can get your ultimate low reading on the BB% and because the primary trend has more momentum the ultimate low will come a little past the low on the BB%
which is logic since the power of momentum is with the primary trend.....In all honesty I don't think I have ever seen anyone who has laid it out and explained it as simply and concisely as I believe I have.
And as we all know there is no such thing as the 1 perfect indicator.... otherwise what would be the point
of the markets and people trading and investors looking for good entry and exit points. Rather, we are
looking for the balance of evidence, everything from Momentum and momentum divergences, time cycles,
Fibonacci price projections, more standard technical patterns and the measured move objectives derived from those pattern.... such as the break out of a rectangular range should move the distance of the range
and if the sideways consolidation has been longer then that increases the probability of a larger measured move.
often time we are not exactly sure if we are in a bull or bear market.. and there is ambiguity. This is one of
the nice clean ways of
1) helping you determine if you are in a bull or bear market. It is really useful for getting you in on pullbacks that are opposite of the primary trend of the market and it also put you on notice that you are going to most likely get overshoots in the direction of the primary trend.
2)Another really beneficial aspect of this technique is that when a market morphs from a bull to a bear, or
a bear to a bull, you will start to see how the BB% which was hitting the corrective lows at exactly the right
spot on the actual low cease to do that and it give you a head's up of a change in the primary trend.
I have some further research on this but way to tired to get into this morning.
just rounding out quickly here is a gold chart to ponder .... we have managed to make it above several cluster of fibonacci retracements and the RSI momentum is strong...... Silver has been sluggish and I am not happy about that....I much rather be in obvious situations such as copper, the EUR, the Yen , Gasoline, heating oil, and long the EUR/JPY cross rate..... those have been the market that have treated me well and they are not conflicted.
The 10 year note... it has these little fake out's down to 2.10% but then always closes at 2.12%... The .382 retracement is 2.13% and many people in the market really believe that it could hold that 2.12 2.13% area.
The 30 year bond --very important.... This is the price of the 30 year bond so the yield is the inverse.
since the middle of June the Impulse or Primary trend direction of the market appears to be down in price and up in yield... after the swift push down in price in Jun.. we have had this meandering upward advance in price....meaning that the yield has drift down lower in a corrective fashion...... And it's important to know that on the long end of the curve we have not gotten back up to the price highs of june , which means that the yield has not been able to get back to the June lows...... very important as the long end of the curve is very important and if we are going to be seeing significantly high yields............. It is important that the long end where there is so much hedging and also so many companies and governments have issued so much cheap debt that is long dated it;s 30, 40 and 50 year bonds....and again those are issued at the bottom of the long term yield cycle where the low yields will be going away.
enough for the moment.
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