hello mq, re <<natural size ... china ... economy ... gdp ...>>
using hong kong as a fair example, template, benchmark, ... boogey
HK population @ 7.34M
HK GDP @ @ US$ 321B
HK households @ 2.4M
HK average household cash savings at bank @ US$ 590K
... would say the mainland can arguably shoot for ...
GDP @ US$ 56,621,438,263,229, otherwise known as ~US$ 57 Trillion at current exchange rate, or about 75% of current global GDP, or a bit higher than current china GDP of 11T and a smidgeon over the current USA GDP of 18T
Cash savings in bank @ US$ (some senseless astronomical number)
and i believe the future can be seeded by the on-going rural land reform program that India needs but China is doing, and the USA can only do after a land-confistication revolution
applying a 6% growth rate to china and a 2.5% growth rate to usa, and a 2% growth rate to rest of the world,
china gdp would overtake usa gdp by 2028, and when so, at 23% of global GDP (from current 17%), likely phase-changes to IP-intensive protocol for the leg-up, along with the eventual consumer debt transformation, all working to accelerate the trending
one can quibble over per capita gdp and such, but actually it is disposable income that matters much more, as well as absolute size of gdp that funds actions, that be space exploration, solving the food water medicine pollution ... imperatives ... oh, and finally, world peace, as long as not wasted in iraq, afghanistan, ukraines, ... n.korea on munitions.
By 2045, China GDP arguably can be 2X USA GDP, and at 36% of global GDP, where China was at one or another time. The trending is certainly in the current enunciated plans, and given the plans have been executing well enough over the past 35 years, should be achievable for the coming 28, as long as not spent over issues that be border wall, gender identity, sexual proclivities, and snowflake sensitivities.
But, yes, there be the details of 2026 TeoTwawKi and 2032 Darkest Interregnum.
so, all in all, am sanguine even as am concerned for erita and jack in the coming changes of the arena. all considered, the future looks pretty good, or good-enough. |
