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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 690.310.0%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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GROUND ZERO™
To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (96525)9/7/2017 10:56:41 PM
From: Don Green1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 220801
 
Forecast for Irma
The ridge of high pressure steering Irma turned out to be stronger than expected on Thursday, and forced the hurricane to move farther south than the models had been predicting. This resulted in a westward shift in the predictions for Irma’s turn to the north by Florida this weekend. As of 10 pm EDT Thursday, the latest available runs (12Z or 18Z) of all of our top models for tracking hurricanes—the European, GFS, HWRF, HMON, and UKMET—had Irma making landfall in South Florida Sunday morning, then turning north. All of the members of the high-probability cluster of the European model ensemble (Figure 2) also showed this track. The only ray of hope for South Florida could be found in the ensemble members of the 12Z GFS ensemble (Figure 3), which had a few members missing the peninsula. Since the average error in a 3-day forecast is 120 miles, it is important to remember that the models may still have additional shifts, and one must pay attention to the NHC cone of uncertainty! If you are in the cone of uncertainty, you are in danger of a direct hit.


wunderground.com
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