Henry, welcome to the club of DD watchers, it is a class by itself. While being the only farmer on hand, I am sorry to see our view diverging (I have been a bear on gold and still am, since above 400, I post those mumblings on the golddigger thread) on gold as of now.
One of the main reasons for my bearishness on gold is the slow but steady recognition that a growing world economy will be put in a straight jacket and be doomed to constant inflation, if countries readopted any kind of gold standard. Thus gold is slowly losing its position as a currency of last resort. If this assumption is correct, then the price of gold will be defined by forces of supply and demand.
I do not know at what price there will be enough capacity shut down to throw back the supply part of the equation, or at what price additional marginal demand will be stimulated. I think, however, that the market in its wisdom will tell us.
One of the surpprises of the recent financial calamity in the rim, is that there was no flight to gold away from the rapidly declining currencies, but flight to dollars. If the financial shock in the rim did not cause the moribund metakl to rise, what will?
Have a happy and prosperous new year.
Zeev |
