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Biotech / Medical : biotech binary events

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To: tuck who wrote (288)9/26/2017 11:14:14 AM
From: semi_infinite   Read Replies (1) of 295
 
Thx for the "heads up" -- it worked out. Not sure where the stock ends up but the options pricing had it handicapped well prior to release. I still think it has a good chance of testing AH lows if not lower. CEO had said in most recent investor conference that the probability of success is chained so this implies the prob of success for dementia trial goes down too. Present 700M market cap still seems high but I am not sure what's appropriate. What your guess of prob of success for phase II trial?

ps I rolled 55 puts to 7.5 and also collared that with 5 calls. Playing it safe.
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